September 2024

The September 2024 edition of MobilityNotes delivers the latest updates from the global mobility industry, covering electric vehicle adoption, emissions regulations, battery technology, renewable fuels, hydrogen innovation, and transportation policy.

## Market Update

### EVs Have Not Yet Reached Mass Adoption

Research from the Electric Vehicle Research Center at UC Davis explains that electric vehicles have not yet reached true mass adoption. According to the Diffusion of Innovation theory, mass adoption requires EVs to represent at least 16% of the entire vehicle population—not merely new vehicle sales. Currently, only Norway and Iceland meet this benchmark, while charging infrastructure and model availability remain significant challenges.

### All EU OEMs Meet 2023 CO₂ Targets

The European Environment Agency reported that all major automotive manufacturers achieved their 2023 CO₂ targets. Increased sales of electrified vehicles helped reduce average passenger vehicle emissions compared to 2022.

### European Union Approves Chinese EV Tariffs

The European Union voted to impose tariffs on electric vehicles imported from China. Tariffs range from 7.8% for Tesla vehicles manufactured in Shanghai to as high as 35% for SAIC vehicles, while BYD and Geely face tariffs between 17% and 18%.

### Navistar Becomes International Motors

Navistar officially rebranded as International Motors on October 1, shifting from a truck manufacturer to a broader transportation solutions provider offering financing, maintenance, connectivity, charging, and fleet services.

## Regulations & Reports

### CARB Reviews Tier 5 Off-Road Low NOx Rules

The California Air Resources Board reviewed updates to its proposed Tier 5 Off-Road emissions regulations. Hydrogen internal combustion engines may be regulated under compression ignition standards beginning with Model Year 2029 and will not qualify as zero-emission vehicles under current definitions.

## Electrification

### Battery Prices Continue to Decline

Goldman Sachs forecasts battery pack prices will decrease by approximately 25% during 2024 and could reach around $80 per kWh by 2026. Improved battery design, lower raw material prices, and increased adoption of LFP battery chemistry are expected to drive these reductions.

### ICCT Reviews Global ZEV Policies

A new ICCT report concludes that many regions still lack coordinated greenhouse gas standards and zero-emission vehicle targets. Only a small percentage of global vehicle sales currently fall under regulations aligned with future 100% ZEV goals.

### U.S. EV Charging Network Progress

The U.S. National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure (NEVI) Program continues expanding charging infrastructure. While approximately 192,000 public charging ports now exist nationwide, only 69 have been directly funded through NEVI due to permitting and implementation challenges.

### Affordable EVs for India

Automakers are preparing lower-cost electric vehicles specifically for the Indian market. Smaller battery packs and Battery-as-a-Service business models aim to reduce purchase prices while supporting broader EV adoption.

## Low Carbon Fuels

### Ethanol's Role in Transport Decarbonization

Industry discussions at the Growth Energy Biofuels Summit emphasized expanding year-round E15 availability, improving renewable fuel standards, and reducing ethanol's carbon intensity toward net-zero emissions by 2050.

## Hydrogen

### Cryo-Compressed Hydrogen Truck

Startup Verne introduced the world's first heavy-duty truck powered by cryo-compressed hydrogen. The technology significantly increases hydrogen storage density, potentially enabling longer driving ranges while reducing storage size and weight.

## Upcoming Conferences

Upcoming industry events include:

- ASME ICE Forward 2024 – San Antonio

- Tire Emissions & Sustainability Europe 2025 – Prague

- Tire Emissions & Sustainability USA 2025 – Irvine, California

The September edition provides valuable insights into global transportation trends, regulatory developments, electrification, renewable fuels, and future mobility technologies.