Aug 2024 News letter

The August 2024 edition of MobilityNotes highlights significant developments in electric vehicle adoption, emissions regulations, sustainable fuels, global energy trends, and heavy-duty transportation.

## Market Update

### Plug-in Electric Vehicles Surpass 50% Market Share in China

China reached a historic milestone as battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) collectively accounted for more than half of all new passenger vehicle sales during July 2024. Nearly 879,000 electrified vehicles were sold, exceeding sales of internal combustion engine vehicles for the first time.

MobilityNotes also introduced a monthly regional powertrain market share summary for its members.

## Regulations & Reports

### CARB Proposes Changes to the Low Carbon Fuel Standard

The California Air Resources Board (CARB) released proposed amendments to the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS), increasing the carbon intensity reduction target from 20% to 30% by 2030.

The proposal also limits LCFS credits for diesel produced from soybean and canola oils while excluding fuels produced from palm oil and its derivatives. Meanwhile, the U.S. EPA has launched investigations into renewable fuel producers over concerns regarding palm oil feedstock usage.

### ExxonMobil 2024 Global Outlook

ExxonMobil's latest global energy outlook forecasts:

- Global energy demand increasing by approximately 15% by 2050.

- CO₂ emissions declining by around 25%.

- Electricity demand growing by nearly 80%.

- Continued growth in renewable energy, hydrogen, biofuels, and carbon capture technologies.

- Oil and natural gas remaining major contributors to global energy supply.

The report also suggests that even if every new car sold globally becomes electric by 2035, worldwide oil demand in 2050 would remain comparable to 2010 levels.

### EU Publishes Heavy-Duty Truck CO₂ Data

The European Commission released 2021 CO₂ emissions data for heavy-duty truck manufacturers as part of its monitoring program ahead of stricter emission standards beginning in 2025.

Manufacturers such as Scania, MAN, and Renault Trucks recorded emissions below the industry average.

### State of Sustainable Fleets 2024

The annual State of Sustainable Fleets report found that diesel continues to dominate the commercial vehicle market in the United States, accounting for 76% of Class 3–8 commercial vehicles and 97% of Class 8 trucks.

Alternative fuels continue to grow, although infrastructure limitations and higher purchase costs remain key challenges.

## Electrification

### Ford Prioritizes Hybrid Vehicles

Ford announced significant changes to its electrification strategy by cancelling its planned three-row electric SUV and delaying its next-generation electric pickup.

The company will instead prioritize hybrid vehicles, introduce a new electric commercial van in 2026, and launch two electric pickup trucks in 2027 while reducing overall EV investment.

### Electric Trucks in India Approach Cost Parity

According to the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT), battery-electric heavy-duty trucks in India could achieve total cost of ownership parity with diesel trucks before the end of this decade.

The study attributes this to:

- Falling battery prices

- Improved battery energy density

- Lower operating costs

- Increased payload efficiency over time

Battery pack prices are projected to decline significantly through 2040, making electric commercial vehicles increasingly competitive.

## Upcoming Conferences

Industry events featured in this edition include:

- SAE COMVEC – Schaumburg, Illinois

- IAA Transportation 2024 – Hanover, Germany

- THIESEL 2024 – Valencia, Spain

- Non-Road Powertrain & Fuels Europe – Munich

- North American International Propulsion Conference – Chicago

- ASME ICE Forward 2024 – San Antonio

- Tire Emissions & Sustainability Europe 2025 – Prague

- Tire Emissions & Sustainability USA 2025 – Irvine, California

The August 2024 MobilityNotes newsletter provides valuable insights into transportation policy, electrification, low-carbon fuels, heavy-duty vehicles, and the evolving global mobility landscape.